Bragging Rights and Friendly Rivalries

Being an Avalanche fan in Philly always presents a certain set of problems that are difficult to overcome. The first being that the Avalanche hardly ever come here. Thus, I'm forced to go see games in New York, DC, and wherever else I can manage to get myself to in order to see the Burgundy and Blue play up close and personal.

The next problem is coverage. Not so much a problem now, but ten years ago (in the days when blogs had not yet started to take over the world), it was all but impossible to find any substantial, day-to-day coverage on the Avalanche.

The last problem concerns being "behind enemy lines," so to speak. Philadelphia is one of the craziest sports cities in America. Opposing fans aren't exactly welcomed with opened arms. Though Avalanche fans don't draw the same ire as say, Ranger or Devil fans, I've still put up with threats and insults over the years when I attend games downtown.

Attending the game downtown isn't an option this season, as the Flyers will face the Avs at the Pepsi Center tonight at 9PM ET. But what is an option is what the game on TV, and that it where the fun begins.

Among the people who know me, I'm seen as a "hockey guy," I guess. Everyone knows I'm obsessed with it, and everyone knows I'm obsessed with the Avs. So when it's time for an Avalanche and Flyers game, I can expect some good-natured ribbing the entire day leading up to the game. I can expect inbox messages on Facebook with YouTube videos of Flyer victories over the Avs (few and far between), and I can expect taunts during the game asking me why the Avs don't MAN UP AND HIT SOMEBODY FOR CRYING OUT LOUD. -Tangent- The Avs need to stay disciplined tonight. The Flyers aren't the Capitals. They're going to come out hitting. They just lost to the Bruins 6-0, and they're going to be pissed. Hopefully Hartnell doesn't kill anybody. -Tangent-

The point is, I welcome all of this good-natured ribbing. It's why I love watching sports. Not only do we, as fans, get to witness a competition taking place on the field or on the ice, but we also engage in a sort-of rivalry of our own when we watch the game. There's nothing more satisfying than watching another team's fan look shocked or disappointed when their goaltender gives up a huge goal late in the third period. There's nothing more exhilarating than when your team conquers your friend's team and that friend has to shut up for the rest of the night.

That's what I'm hoping for tonight. I want, rather, I NEED an Avalanche victory tonight.

This one's for bragging rights.

Go Avs.

Cautious Optimism

In my last post, oh so long ago, I wrote about the interesting dichotomy we face as fans about being optimistic about our team's chances versus the need to be realistic about who that team actually is at this point in the season. I ended the post with this:

Colorado has reached a critical point in its season. As a group, they can either decide to turn things around right now, or they can continue to make Washington fans very, very happy.

The optimist in me says that the losing is going to stop, and the Avs will somehow find a way to pull things together and get back to where they were in October.

The realist isn't so sure.

Three wins later, including a really solid 60-minute effort against the Detroit Red Wings [presented by Amway] tonight, there are certainly reasons for Avalanche fans to start feeling some hope that this team is back on track and ready to turn this season into something memorable.

Those reasons start first and foremost with "The Factor," Ryan O'Reilly. The 20-year-old kid who many thought would be named captain a week ago started centering the newly formed second line during this eight-game stretch at home consisting of Gabriel Landeskog and Milan Hejduk. The trio has been tremendous, with O'Reilly leading the way. Over the last five games, he has four goals and five assists, and he has been named the first star for two games in a row. He basically took over during the third period against the Blues on Friday night, and he helped decide that game in the shootout.

But it hasn't only been O'Reilly making fans smile lately. Semyon Varlamov had some rough goings in November, and a lot of the Colorado faithful began to wonder if there was going to be a goaltender controversy on the horizon. Though J.S. Giguere still might see some increased time due to his stellar play, There shouldn't be a question that "Varly" is still #1. Since he gave up six goals to Pittsburgh on November 15th, Varlamov's GA line reads as follows: 2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2. His lowest save percentage in that span was .929, and he stopped over 30 shots three times.

Finally, big time shout out to rookie defenseman Stefan Elliott. No, he hasn't been perfect. Yes, he made some bad mistakes tonight and saw little ice time due to the Avs rolling seven defenseman, but in his first five NHL games, he has made a big impact. In his debut against the Oilers on November 26th, Elliott scored the game winning goal with one of his nasty wrist shots. The offensively inclined blueliner followed that up with an assist on the 28th against Dallas, and yet another goal against the Devils on the 30th. In his fourth game, Elliott played a (short) career high 22:11 and more than held his own against the red hot St. Louis Blues. With Erik Johnson's return, Joe Sacco will have a tough decision to make about whether or not to keep Elliott in the lineup. But as Sacco has said, if he sits, it won't be for long.

The Avs went 5-3 during their franchise long 8-game homestand, and they now sit in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race with 27 points. A .500 record in tow and a big matchup coming up against the Canucks on Tuesday night, there is more than one reason to be cautiously optimistic about how this season will play out.

On Being Realistic versus Optimistic

The Avs have lost four of their last five, and they are 2-7-1 in their last ten. Their six regulation wins is tied for fourth worst in the league, and the six points they've earned in ten home games is the worst mark in the NHL.

The optimist in me is screaming to stay the course - things will get better when Matt Duchene and Paul Stastny and Erik Johnson really get going.

The realist in me says otherwise.

Back when the Avs were a league powerhouse (don't those days seem like so long ago?), Colorado could never really be counted out of a game. There was too much star power up front and too much consistency on the back end to simply assume that being down one or two goals would cause the team to fold.

But now, in the Post-Sakic era, there is a whole generation of Avalanche fans who have never known this team to be anything but mediocre.

Think about. A kid born in July 2001 has never seen an Avalanche Stanley Cup. Let's go out on a limb, and say that the kid didn't really start following hockey until around 2007-08. Consider what he (or she!) has been through:

Starting with 07-08: Cool, the Avs made the playoffs. The very next season? Crap, the Avs finish third-to-last. But hey, they get to draft Matt Duchene who will turn the franchise around. Sakic retires. Uh-oh. But the Avs make the playoffs! There's something brewing here! Wait, now they're second-to-last? Whatever, at least Gabriel Landeskog will make things better.

Which brings us, Avalanche fans, to the present day.

In the Post-Sakic era (aka the "Matt Duchene Era), the Avalanche has been an inconsistent and relatively disappointing club. The model has been set. Start the season hot, simmer down in November and December, collapse after January. That has become the culture. There is no Peter Forsberg to carry the team on his back. There is no Joe Sakic to score that game winning goal. No doubt, Duchene is a supreme talent, and his past couple goals have been nothing short of extraordinary, but he's not at the point where he can go out and dominate a game. If he is, he hasn't shown it on a night-by-night basis.

As fans, we want to be optimistic. We see the promise of Duchene and Stastny and O'Reilly and Jones and Landeskog. We see the ability of Hejduk and Johnson and Varlamov, and we believe, in theory, that the team should be set to, at the very least, make a run to the playoffs.

But the reality is very different. On a game-by-game basis, these players do not perform as we hope. There are too many nights when they are all invisible. There are too many nights when Johnson turns the puck over or Jones doesn't score or Stastny doesn't rack up assists. The Avalanche are averaging 2.5 goals per game in the month of November. Take away a 7-6 loss to Dallas, and that number drops to 2.1.

We're getting to the point in the season where a team's record indicates what they are. Teams that got off to bad starts (Detroit, Vancouver, Boston) are starting to play well and making moves to get into top playoff contention. Other teams (Colorado) are quickly fading and already starting to lose ground in the race for eighth.

Again, when I watch games and the other teams scores first, I always believe that the Avs will tie it up and go on to win. It's the result of being a die-hard fan. I want to be optimistic, and I don't want to give up on a game just because of a goal in the first ten minutes.

Slowly, it's becoming harder and harder to maintain that facade.

Colorado has reached a critical point in its season. As a group, they can either decide to turn things around right now, or they can continue to make Washington fans very, very happy.

The optimist in me says that the losing is going to stop, and the Avs will somehow find a way to pull things together and get back to where they were in October.

The realist isn't so sure.

The Duke Becomes a Captain

Captain Hejduk

Fresh from the Avalanche twitter account, the Avs finally have a new captain.

In a tweet at 10:57 ET this morning, the Avalanche revealed:

MILAN HEJDUK NAMED CAPTAIN: Veteran winger to become third captain in Avalanche history. Details to follow.

For many, Hejduk is the obvious choice to captain the Avs. In terms of all-time Colorado statistics, Hejduk is near the top of almost all of them.

For the regular season, Hejduk is:

-1st in games played (910)
-1st in game winning goals (58)
-2nd in goals scored (357)
-2nd in points (757)
-2nd in power play points
-3rd in assists (400)
-4th in +/- (120)

Hejduk also has the third most playoff points in team history (behind Sakic and Forsberg) and was part of the 2001 Stanley Cup team. He is the only active Avalanche player remaining from that group.

He is also tied with Joe Sakic for most consecutive 20-goals seasons (11) and is on-pace to top twenty goals (once again) this season.

Many have been calling for the Avalanche to name a captain. After the Avalanche fell to the Flames last Monday, Adrian Dater wrote,

My game story from tonight centered a lot around the fact the Avs still don’t have a captain. Which begs the question: is there one on this team? Or, is it just a team full of complementary guys? I think, at this point, it’s a fair question.

In a move that seems (on the face of it, anyway) to be more symbolic than anything (are the younger Avs suddenly going to be looking up to Hejduk more than they were already?), Hejduk will need to help right the ship for the struggling Avs, who currently hold a putrid 2-6-0 record at home.

Fans have never known #23 to be the most vocal of players, but there's no doubt that he still works hard and does the right things on and off the ice. He's a winner, and a guy who has been clutch in key situations before.

I can't help but feel a little disappointed that I'm not writing about Ryan O'Reilly taking this role. He has really elevated his game this year, and by all accounts, is the hardest working player on the team.

Then again, maybe the 20-year-old isn't quite ready to assume the role.

Congratulations to Mr. Hejduk, who will no doubt be one of the last Avalanche players (after Adam Foote) for a long while to get his number retired upon finishing his career. He's been one of my favorite players for over a decade now, and he is fully deserving of the "C."

BREAKING: Winning at Home is Pretty Important

Pictured: (Apparently) The Friendliest Place on Earth

Last night's 2-1 loss to the Calgary Flames dropped the Avs to 1-5-0 at the Pepsi Center.

That's two points out of a possible twelve, folks.

Luckily, a 6-1-1 road record has kept the Avalanche season afloat, and if they could figure out how to score goals at home, we might just see them in the playoffs this year.

Indeed, in the six home games, the Avs have been outscored 17-7. On the road, the Avs are outscoring opponents at a 33-25 clip.

I'm not going to speculate as to what's going on. There are plenty of theories, mostly revolving around "fan enthusiasm" and "coaching." I don't buy into the former, but the latter may have merit at this point. Still, I don't think it's Joe Sacco's time to go.

Let's save that one for another post.

Instead, let's take a look at some interesting numbers regarding the playoffs, the Stanley Cup, and home rink success.

--Out of the sixteen current playoff teams, just one (Buffalo) has a losing record at home (3-4-0)

--The six division leaders have a combined home record of 32-5-5. That's good enough for 67 points out of a possible 77.

--Of the sixteen playoff teams, only five (LA, Florida, San Jose, Toronto, and Ottawa) are being outscored on home ice. But the combined margin is just twelve goals.

--Every single playoff team in 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, and 2004 had a winning record at home. The streak is broken in 2003 when the eighth-seeded Islanders were 18-18-5 at the Colosseum.

--The last five Stanley Cup champions have combined for a 131-49-25 record on friendly soil. That's a 76% point percentage. Again, the Avs are currently on pace for about a 15% point percentage.

In other words, it's pretty simple.

Win at home, or get rid of any shred of hope for success.

Duchene's Slow Start: No Need To Worry

Arguably Colorado's most talented player, Matt Duchene hasn't exactly gotten off to a stellar start this season. In six games, Duchene has just one goal, two assists, and only eleven shots on goal. He ranks tenth on the team in ice time and just sixth among forwards.

Duchene's stats look even worse when compared to those of John Tavares (five goals, three assists in four games), a player whose career has paralleled Duchene's since the two were drafted as the #1 and #3 selections in the 2009 draft.

Should Avalanche fans be worried?

The answer: Not at all.

Even though fans may not approve, Duchene is a notoriously slow starter, and his NHL career is evidence of that fact.

Fans may remember his rookie year in 2009, when it took Duchene seemingly FOREVER to get that first goal. He had just three assists through the first seven games before tallying his first goal in the eighth against the Detroit Red Wings (presented by Amway). Still, Duchene continued to struggle and had just two assists in the next five games after. Then, after scoring a goal on October 30th (his second), Duchene was pointless until November 18th, a span of seven games. Overall, he had just seven points in his first 21 games. Finally, Duchene began to take off. He tallied seven goals and five assists over the next eleven games and his campaign for a Calder nomination was finally launched. Dutchy finished the year with 24 goals and 31 assists in 81 games, leading all rookies in scoring and was third in Calder Trophy voting behind Tyler Myers and (gag) Jimmy Howard. Despite the slow start, Duchene still managed to impress in his rookie season.

Being a year older and more experienced didn't help in 2010. After scoring and assisting on a goal against the Blackhawks to open the season, #9 wound up with just one goal and four assists in the first seven games. For the next thirteen games, Dutchy found a way to pick up assists (ten), but he scored just two goals. Keep in mind that this stretch took place from October 23rd to November 20th. That's a long time for a top line/second line forward not to score. True to form, however, Duchene once again shifted into a new gear. He tallied ten goals in the next twelve games, and even though the Avalanche season turned out to be dreadful, the Dutch managed to improve on his rookie totals by compiling 27 goals and 40 assists in 80 games. He improved his shot total by 22 (from 180 to 202) and recorded eleven more even strength points than the year before. Overall, many considered this to be a successful second year for the '08 #3 pick.

A quick look at Duchene's starts in the OHL also support the idea that he isn't the greatest early season performer.

In 2008-09, the Haliburton, Ontario native put up 10 points (6g/4a) in his first 11 games with the Brampton Battalion. Not bad numbers by any account, but when you consider he ended up averaging nearly 1.4 points-per-game on the season, you can see how those stats weren’t up to his personal standard.

An even better example may be the 2007-08 season, his first in the OHL. That year, Duchene totaled 10 points (6g/4a) in his first 20 games before finding his groove and netting 40 points in his last 44 contests after adjusting to playing in the OHL.

So here's an early season message to Avalanche fans:

Don't worry too much about Matt Duchene's somewhat lackluster play. The kid is entering the prime of his career, and the points will start to come soon enough (Although, based on history, probably not until sometime around mid-November).

Yes, there's going to come a time when Duchene is expected to perform for a full 82 games. The Avs have gotten off to hot starts the last few seasons, but things aren't always going to turn out that way. In years when the Avalanche struggle at the start of the season, fingers will be pointed at Duchene and his ultimate performance on the ice. He'll need to contribute early and often.

That time hasn't come yet. The Avs are winning, the team has three solid lines, and for now, Duchene can wait a little longer to start going on a tear.

But hopefully he can break free a little earlier next time around.

ANDY, ANDY, ANDY, ANDY, ANDY, ANDY, ANDY - Yeah, That's Seven

One of the few saves made by Craig Anderson in Colorado's 7-1 decimation of the Senators (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Adrian Wyld)

The Avs just got done dismantling former netminder, Craig Anderson, and the Ottawa Senators.

The numbers speak for themselves:

-39-16 shot advantage for the Avalanche, including an 18-4 first period

-4/6 on the power play

-Four third period goals

Looking back, this game could have gone in a completely different direction. The Senators scored just four minutes into the game (on the power play and on their first shot) and if this Avalanche team came close to resembling last year's, that might have been all the inspiration Colorado needed to pack it in for the night. Instead, the Avs capitalized on a power play of their own just three minutes later. From that point forward, they owned the night. They didn't let the Senators gain any momentum, and they put together a full sixty minute effort. Beautiful.

The goal scorers for tonight:

Milan Hejduk (PP)

Gabriel Landeskog (Second career goal, second straight game)

Joakim Lindstrom (Two goals in first career game)

Matt Duchene (First of the season)

Daniel Winnik (First of the season)

David Jones (First of the season)

Ryan O'Reily also added three assists, while Erik Johnson and Ryan Wilson each had two of their own.

Overall, this was an important game for the Avs, even though it only counts as two points. Thus far, the team had been struggling to score. Now that a lot of key players picked up their first points of the year (especially Duchene and Stastny), the offense should start coming a lot easier.

It's also worthy to note that Peter Mueller was a healthy scratch tonight. It's going to be hard to take Lindstrom out of the lineup after his performance, so it should be interesting to see who Sacco chooses to sit. (Perhaps TJ Galiardi? He was promoted to the Stastny line in place of David Jones, but Gali put up straight zeroes on the board tonight and played a team low 10:14.)

In Retrospect

It was a fun game to watch. Still, it's only one game. Let's see if they can continue this streak against the Habs.

Three Avalanche Stars

1. Joakim Lindstrom (Two goals and five shots in NHL debut)

2. Gabriel Landeskog (GWG, one assist, three shots, living up to the early hype)

3. The Avalanche Team (Let's see more!)

Next Up

Montreal. Saturday. 7PM ET.

Video Fix

Here's Ryan Wilson sticking up for Gabriel Landeskog: